Quartz Solar tool now being used in control room at National Energy System Operator (NESO) to generate superior forecasts, up to days ahead of time
Leading not-for-profit Open Climax Fix says that its AI-powered solar forecasting tool is now fully integrated into NESO’s control room operations, rom day-ahead scheduling to real-time control.
Photo by Todd Rhines / Unsplash
The tool, called Quartz Solar, combines live satellite imagery and weather data with machine learning to provides its forecasts of solar activity. That provides NESO with timely and accurate predictions of the energy to be generated through solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays, enabling more efficient and stable management of the grid through dynamic reserve setting.
In the process, there are reductions in carbon emissions and costs.
One issue with traditional methods in forecasting is the reliance on numerical predictions that are updated every few hours, with the potential to miss rapid shifts in cloud cover and corresponding solar output. Open Climax Fix says that combining live data with machine learning provides much better short term-accuracy in a given day, while also providing longer-term predictions.
By responding more effectively to fluctuations in solar generation, the hope is that NESO will be able to reduce its reliance on last-minute backup energy supplies, which are often fossil-fuelled, cutting an estimated 300,000 tonnes in carbon emissions – the equivalent of powering some 62,000 homes in the UK – and saving at least £30m in imbalance costs.
The Open Climax Fix initiative to develop Quartz Solar was originally one of more than 95 active innovation projects supported by NESO and funded through the Network Innovation Allowance (NIA), Network Innovation Competition (Nic) and Ofgem’s Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF). Supported by NESO’s AI Centre for Excellence, Quartz Solar went on to be developed in collaboration with the organisation’s energy forecasting team.
The not-for-profit Open Climate Fix was founded in 2019 with the goal of bridging the gap between cutting-edge research and real-world energy systems. It operates on open principles, sharing data and code to encourage collaboration, maximise transparency and accelerate impact across the sector.
Carolina Tortora, Head of AI, Digitalisation and Innovation at NESO, says: ‘Thanks to the success of our NIA project, Open Climate Fix and the NESO developed a cutting-edge tool that can accurately predict solar generation up to 36 hours in advance – revolutionising our solar forecasts in the control room.’
Dan Travers, Co-Founder of Open Climate Fix, adds: ‘Seeing Quartz Solar go from concept to core infrastructure is a huge milestone for us – and for non-profit climate tech. It shows how open-science AI can deliver real-world results at scale, cutting emissions and saving money every single day.’
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